By George Friedman
Louis M. Bacon is the head of Moore Capital Management, one of the largest and most influential hedge funds
in the world. Last week, he announced that he was returning one quarter
of his largest fund, about $2 billion, to his investors. The reason he
gave to The New York Times was that he had found it difficult to invest
given the impossibility of predicting the European situation. He was
quoted as saying, "The political involvement is so extreme -- we have
not seen this since the postwar era. What they are doing is trying to
thwart natural market outcomes. It is amazing how important the
decision-making of one person, Angela Merkel, has become to world
markets."
The purpose of hedge funds is to make money, and what Bacon essentially said was that it is impossible to make money when there is heavy political involvement, because political involvement introduces unpredictability in the market. Therefore, prudent investment becomes impossible. Hedge funds have become critical to global capital allocation because their actions influence other important actors, and their unwillingness to invest and trade has significant implications for capital availability. If others follow Moore Capital's lead, as they will, there will be greater difficulty in raising the capital needed to address the problem of Europe.
The purpose of hedge funds is to make money, and what Bacon essentially said was that it is impossible to make money when there is heavy political involvement, because political involvement introduces unpredictability in the market. Therefore, prudent investment becomes impossible. Hedge funds have become critical to global capital allocation because their actions influence other important actors, and their unwillingness to invest and trade has significant implications for capital availability. If others follow Moore Capital's lead, as they will, there will be greater difficulty in raising the capital needed to address the problem of Europe.
